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The United States GP F1 Fantasy week comes down to six choices.
On last-5 average the 2x case is Verstappen, 45.6 doubled to 91.2. Antonelli (43.6, 87.2) leads the four standard rounds, 46.3 to 43.8.
| Driver | $M | Last-5 avg | ×2 | Median | Avg, 4 standard rounds R13–R16 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Verstappen | 28.2 | 45.6 | 91.2 | 43.0 | 43.8 |
| Antonelli | 27.1 | 43.6 | 87.2 | 33.0 | 46.3 |
| Russell | 27.9 | 23.4 | 46.8 | 27.0 | 25.0 |
| Leclerc | 24.1 | 20.6 | 41.2 | 20.0 | 15.0 |
| Hamilton | 24.4 | 18.6 | 37.2 | 26.0 | 15.0 |
| Piastri | 23.4 | 15.8 | 31.6 | 9.0 | 18.3 |
Antonelli's 93 at Monza came from P19; his other four average 31.3. Verstappen was the top-scoring driver in 3 of the last 5 rounds.
R17 had a Sprint; R18 does not. The ×2 doubles the whole weekend, negatives included (our words); the official text says "double their score for that Grand Prix".
Price lines, our model's estimate: Verstappen −58 / −33 / −8; Antonelli −12 / 12 / 36. The three lines are limits the fall, avoids a fall and biggest rise.
By our count of the FIA lists, Verstappen is at the limit (next engine 10 places), Antonelli over it (next 5). The FIA's own list, expected on Friday, replaces our count.
Your call: the Verstappen F1 Fantasy case (last 5) or Antonelli's (standard rounds).
Mercedes leads the 11 constructors over the last five, 81.4 a round; Red Bull Racing is second, 72.4, and Ferrari third, 51.6. Over the last three Red Bull Racing leads, 78.0, then Ferrari, 72.0, and Mercedes, 64.0.
COTA scores only Qualifying and the Race. On those alone, the last three read Red Bull Racing 78.3, Mercedes 64.3, Ferrari 63.7.
| Constructor | $M | R1–R12 | R13–R17 | R15–R17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercedes | 34.0 | 80.5 | 81.4 | 64.0 |
| Red Bull Racing | 32.7 | 43.1 | 72.4 | 78.0 |
| McLaren | 32.4 | 51.8 | 43.0 | 31.3 |
| Ferrari | 28.2 | 70.0 | 51.6 | 72.0 |
| Constructor | $M | Limits the fall | Avoids a fall | Biggest rise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mercedes | 34.0 | −42 | −12 | cap: cannot rise |
| Red Bull Racing | 32.7 | −103 | −74 | −45 |
| McLaren | 32.4 | −34 | −5 | 24 |
| Ferrari | 28.2 | −119 | −94 | −69 |
All lines: Budget Builder · how the price rule works.
Practice, and the reports: Motorsport.com reports Ferrari's largest upgrade of the season for Austin; Autosport reports Mercedes re-introducing the front wing tested in Singapore practice.
Your call: two of Red Bull Racing, Ferrari and Mercedes, on the last five or the last three rounds, or wait.
Hold or sell turns on price: 64 at COTA avoids a fall (our model's estimate); his 2026 high is 45.
FIA list, expected Friday: by our count he is over the allowance (next engine 5 places).
Your call: hold for the points, sell before a fall, or wait for the FIA's list.
Hulkenberg (13.4) and Ocon (10.2) lead the 11 ranked under $10M on last-5 average. Hulkenberg has 4 race not-classified results (−20 each in the game), Ocon 1.
| Driver | $M | Last-5 avg | Last-3 avg | Race not classified, R1–R17 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hulkenberg | 6.6 | 13.4 | 17.0 | 4 |
| Ocon | 9.9 | 10.2 | 12.0 | 1 |
| Bearman | 6.4 | 7.6 | 10.3 | 3 |
| Sainz | 8.4 | 5.6 | 10.7 | 2 |
| Alonso | 5.4 | 1.6 | 4.7 | 6 |
| Perez | 3.6 | 1.2 | 3.7 | 5 |
Lawson ($9.9M) ranks on last 3 only, 12.7 (R13–R14 in the Red Bull); Lindblad is exactly $10.0M.
Your call: Hulkenberg's form with his record, Ocon's cleaner one, or wait.
Six F1 Fantasy 2026 rounds remain, none with a Sprint; chips cover Qualifying and the Race.
| Chip | What it does at R18 |
|---|---|
| Wildcard | Unlimited transfers within the cost cap until Saturday's lock. |
| Limitlesswhen to use Limitless | One week, no cost cap or transfer limit; your old team then returns. |
| Final Fix | One change after Qualifying; the old driver's Qualifying points stay. |
| Autopilot | The Boost moves to your top-scoring driver if that is not the pick. |
| x3 Boost | One driver's Qualifying + Race score tripled; the 2x goes elsewhere. |
| No Negative | No negative per scoring category; transfer penalties still count. |
Where the official text is silent, the wording is ours: a tripled score includes negatives.
Your call: x3 or Limitless now, No Negative, or keep every chip.
By our count of the FIA lists, only Bortoleto can fit a new engine without a grid penalty.
The FIA's own list, expected on Friday, replaces our count. A team's plan is not a penalty until the stewards decide (grid penalties, rounds 1–9).
Your call: set your team before Friday's list, or after it.
F1 Fantasy at COTA favours the front row: pole won 6 of 13 races, the winner started there in 11 of 13.
Verstappen: 4 wins from 10 COTA starts; Hamilton 5 from 13; Lindblad has no COTA start.
National Weather Service for the Austin F1 Fantasy weekend, as of Thu 22 Oct 2026, 17:10 UTC: Friday sunny, high 86°F (30°C), 0% rain. Saturday mostly sunny, 86°F (30°C), 1%; Sunday partly sunny, 83°F (28.3°C), 1%.
Your call: front-row qualifiers, a cheap seat with its risk, or No Negative.
Before practice: Verstappen the 2x for two of the four creators we read, the constructor call split, Reddit leaning Mercedes.
Caveat: the videos were published between 13 and 22 Oct, and all of it predates practice.
Your call: treat it as opinion, tested against the numbers above.
No pick from us. Build it in the Team Builder.
| Decision | The one number that matters |
|---|---|
| Captain: Verstappen or Antonelli | Verstappen leads the last 5, 45.6; Antonelli leads R13–R16, 46.3. |
| Constructors: Red Bull, Ferrari or Mercedes | Last 5: Mercedes 81.4 a round; last 3: Red Bull 78.0, Ferrari 72.0. |
| Russell at $27.9M: hold or sell | 64 avoids a price fall (our model's estimate); his 2026 high is 45. |
| Cheap picks: form or record | Last 5: Hulkenberg 13.4, Ocon 10.2; not classified R1–R17: 4 and 1. |
| Chips: now or later | Six rounds left including R18, none with a Sprint. |
| Engines: lock now or wait | 13 at the engine limit, 8 over (our count); FIA list expected Friday. |
Sources: official F1 Fantasy feed and rules text; FIA documents; formula1.com results; US National Weather Service (Thu 22 Oct 2026, 17:10 UTC); Motorsport.com and Autosport; videos from four creators and 34 Reddit threads (read 21–22 Oct); our price model.