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Race-week preview · R15 Baku City Circuit · 51 laps · not a sprint weekend

Azerbaijan GP F1 Fantasy tips: five decisions before the Friday lock

STATUSPrices and news as of 24 Sep 2026, 16:10 UTC · Lineups lock Fri 25 Sep, 12:00 UTC (qualifying start) · Race Sat 26 Sep 11:00 UTC · Anything later appears on the FIA document page and in the game before the lock.

The lock is a day early

Fri 12:00 UTC · 25 Sep

Qualifying starts at 16:00 Baku time and that is when the game locks. The whole weekend moved forward one day to avoid Azerbaijan's Remembrance Day on 27 Sep. Miss Friday and your team rides the Baku GP as it stands, bar one Final Fix change after qualifying if you still hold that chip.

FP1 Thu 24 Sep 08:30 UTC FP2 Thu 12:00 UTC FP3 Fri 25 Sep 08:30 UTC Qualifying + lock Fri 12:00 UTC Race Sat 26 Sep 11:00 UTC Tyres C3 / C4 / C5 Next: R16 Bahrain GP at Sepang 2–4 Oct

formula1.com: "the Azerbaijan weekend will kick off earlier in order to avoid a clash with the country's Remembrance Day on September 27 – Free Practice taking place on Thursday, followed by Qualifying on Friday and the Grand Prix on Saturday."

Azerbaijan GP F1 Fantasy tips: five decisions before the Friday lock

This is the 10th race at Baku. The 9 Baku races so far (2016–2025) give a real record for drivers, teams and the circuit, but none of it describes the 2026 cars, and this brief uses no pre-2026 F1 Fantasy scores. So it is built as five decisions, each with the verified numbers beside it. Who is rising and falling in price, and what each asset needs at Baku. Who starts from the back after the FIA's penalty decisions, and where Leclerc stands. Who Baku has rewarded. How much DNF (did-not-finish) risk a team can carry. And what the Baku record actually says about Leclerc from pole.

Four source labels run through the page. Official F1 Fantasy is the game's own feed: prices, points, DNF penalties. FIA documents are the FIA's official papers: Technical Delegate reports, stewards' decisions, the entry list and classifications, and the 2026 regulations. Race results are the official classifications. OUR MODEL is RaceStrategist's price formula and predictions, always labelled, never presented as a rule. The verdicts are yours; the closing ledger lists the options, not our pick.

Grid penalties · the FIA documents · as of 24 Sep 2026, 16:10 UTC

OFFICIAL

Alonso drops 25 grid places and Stroll 20, so both start at the back. Charles Leclerc is not on the FIA's list of new power-unit parts for Baku, so he has no power-unit penalty so far. A Leclerc engine change had been reported as possible before the weekend; the FIA's list is the answer unless a new document appears before qualifying. The stewards also ruled on Lewis Hamilton for impeding Liam Lawson in second practice: a driving reprimand, his second of the season, and no grid penalty (Document 29).

Sources: the FIA Technical Delegate's report on new power-unit elements (Document 14) and the stewards' decisions on cars 14 and 18 (Documents 20 and 21), all dated 24 Sep. Decision 2 has the details.

1Decide

Price fallers and risers into Baku: sell before Friday, or hold for the bounce?

The official rules: "Driver and constructor prices update after each race and remain fixed until the next. Prices change based on average Fantasy performance from the last three Grand Prix of the current season." And: "Prices cannot exceed 34m or drop below 3m." Everything below the price columns, the tiers and cut-points, is OUR MODEL, not a rule. All 35 feed rows reconcile: the sum of per-race points equals each season total.

Official F1 Fantasy feed · re-checked 24 Sep 15:52:07 UTCLast move, after R14 Madrid · prices in $M · mini bars scaled to ±$0.6M

Asset	Type	Before	Baku	Move	Streak / note
Risers
Racing Bulls	Constructor	14.1	14.7	+0.6	14 straight rises
Audi	Constructor	8.0	8.6	+0.6	8 straight rises
Alex AlbonWilliams	Driver	5.8	6.4	+0.6	2 straight rises, after 12 straight falls
Nico HülkenbergAudi	Driver	4.2	4.8	+0.6	3 straight rises, off the $3.0M floor
Mercedes	Constructor	33.2	33.5	+0.3	14 straight rises; $0.5M below the $34M cap
McLaren	Constructor	31.6	31.9	+0.3	12 straight rises
Red Bull Racing	Constructor	31.5	31.8	+0.3	14 straight rises
Ferrari	Constructor	27.2	27.5	+0.3	14 straight rises
Alpine	Constructor	19.2	19.5	+0.3	14 straight rises
Lando NorrisMcLaren	Driver	26.7	27.0	+0.3	6 straight rises
Kimi AntonelliMercedes	Driver	26.3	26.6	+0.3	5 straight rises
Williams	Constructor	13.8	14.0	+0.2	3 straight rises
Franco ColapintoAlpine	Driver	10.4	10.6	+0.2
Arvid LindbladRacing Bulls	Driver	8.0	8.2	+0.2	2 straight rises
George RussellMercedes	Driver	27.7	27.8	+0.1	2 straight rises
Oscar PiastriMcLaren	Driver	24.0	24.1	+0.1
Flat
Isack HadjarRed Bull	Driver	14.5	14.5	0.0	Back at Red Bull after injury. The feed moved his price 14.5 → 15.1 → 14.5 on 22 Sep, with no race in between
Bottas · PérezCadillac	Drivers	3.0	3.0	0.0	On the $3.0M floor
Lance StrollAston Martin	Driver	3.0	3.0	0.0	On the $3.0M floor
Cadillac	Constructor	3.0	3.0	0.0	On the floor
Fallers
Max VerstappenRed Bull	Driver	27.4	27.3	−0.1	9 straight falls
Charles LeclercFerrari	Driver	24.1	24.0	−0.1	2 straight falls
Pierre GaslyAlpine	Driver	12.2	12.0	−0.2	3 straight falls
Gabriel BortoletoAudi	Driver	8.6	8.4	−0.2
Fernando AlonsoAston Martin	Driver	7.0	6.8	−0.2
Lewis HamiltonFerrari	Driver	25.2	24.9	−0.3	OUR MODEL: −0.3 is the biggest fall a $18.5M+ asset can take
Liam LawsonRacing Bulls	Driver	10.3	9.7	−0.6	Back at Racing Bulls. This row sat at 10.3 while he raced for Red Bull (R12–R14). Changed on 22 Sep, with no race in between
Haas	Constructor	10.8	10.2	−0.6	3 straight falls
Carlos SainzWilliams	Driver	9.6	9.0	−0.6	10 straight falls
Esteban OconHaas	Driver	9.5	8.9	−0.6	3 straight falls
Oliver BearmanHaas	Driver	6.4	5.8	−0.6	3 straight falls
Aston Martin	Constructor	6.9	6.3	−0.6

Official F1 Fantasy feedSeason, R1 price → Baku price · $M · bars scaled to $8.4M

Biggest risers

Racing Bulls6.3 → 14.7 · +133% · +0.6 in all 14 rounds

+8.4

Alpine12.5 → 19.5

+7.0

Colapinto6.2 → 10.6 · +71%

+4.4

Mercedes29.3 → 33.5

+4.2

Ferrari23.3 → 27.5

+4.2

Red Bull

+3.6

Antonelli23.2 → 26.6

+3.4

Five constructors rose in every round: Racing Bulls, Alpine, Ferrari, Mercedes, Red Bull. Racing Bulls is the biggest net riser. Leclerc is +1.2 on the season (22.8 → 24.0; peak 24.2 after R12, the price he carried into Monza). Verstappen is −0.4 (27.7 → 27.3).

Biggest fallers

Albon11.6 → 6.4 · rising again after 12 falls

−5.2

Strollto the floor · has not risen once in 2026

−5.0

Aston Martin10.3 → 6.3

−4.0

Alonso10.0 → 6.8

−3.2

Pérez6.0 → 3.0

−3.0

Cadillac6.0 → 3.0

−3.0

Bottas5.9 → 3.0

−2.9

Sainz11.8 → 9.0

−2.8

Hülkenberg

−2.0

Bearman

−1.6

Piastri25.5 → 24.1

−1.4

The $3.0M floor club: Bottas, Pérez, Stroll and Cadillac. They cannot fall further. Mercedes sits $0.5M under the $34M cap.

OUR MODELWhat each asset needs at Baku · points needed, accurate to about ±1–2 pts · hit rate = 2026 races at or above that score

Our formula reproduces all but 2 of 456 real 2026 price moves (the two misses: Gasly and Lawson after R8). We do not print probabilities; they are fragile. We print the score an asset needs and how often it has scored that this season.

Asset	Price $M	Needs at Baku (OUR MODEL)	2026 races at or above
LeclercFerrari	24.0	37 pts to hold the fall to −$0.1M; 58 for +$0.1M; 79 for +$0.3M	37+ in 4 of 14; 58+ in 0
HamiltonFerrari	24.9	33 to hold the fall to −$0.1M; 55 for +$0.1M	33+ in 4 of 14
Mercedes	33.5	+$0.3M is effectively locked, taking it to $33.8M. After that the $34M cap limits the next rise to +$0.2M	—
AntonelliMercedes	26.6	+$0.3M locked by arithmetic; even a −25 weekend keeps it	—
Ferrari	27.5	33 to extend the 14-round rise streak (+$0.1M); 57 for +$0.3M	33+ in 11 of 14, but only 24 and 18 in the last two
VerstappenRed Bull	27.3	−1 pt ends his 9-race slide (+$0.1M); 23 for +$0.3M	−1 or better in 11 of 14
RussellMercedes	27.8	16 for +$0.1M; 40 for +$0.3M	16+ in 11 of 14; 40+ in 3
NorrisMcLaren	27.0	18 for +$0.1M; 42 for +$0.3M	18+ in 10 of 14; 42+ in 2
PiastriMcLaren	24.1	0 to avoid −$0.3M; 22 for +$0.1M	22+ in 4 of 14
SainzWilliams	9.0	29 to stop an 11th straight fall (+$0.2M); 21 limits it to −$0.2M	29+ in 0 of 14 (best 28); 21+ once
AlonsoAston Martin	6.8	19 to avoid the big fall	19+ in 2 of 14
Racing Bulls	14.7	A rise needs only −6; +$0.6M needs 7	—
Audi	8.6	+$0.6M needs −20; a big rise is near-certain	—
AlbonWilliams	6.4	+$0.6M needs 2	2+ in 9 of 14

Leclerc's likely −$0.3M comes from his Monza −12 still sitting in the 3-race window, not from any penalty. He needs 37 to limit the fall to −$0.1M and has reached 37+ in 4 of 14 races. The same 37/58/79 appear in the published Leclerc post. Budget Builder shows these thresholds; it defaults to the AI V2 source and numbers can differ by source.

Hadjar and Lawson · a seat story, reported as fact · no price call

Official (formula1.com, 22 Sep): Hadjar returns to Red Bull after his wrist injury. Lawson moves back to Racing Bulls, and Tsunoda steps out. The FIA entry list for Baku (Document 12) has Hadjar in car 6 at Red Bull and Lawson in car 30 at Racing Bulls.

The feed changed both prices on 22 Sep, with no race in between. Hadjar went $14.5M → $15.1M (by 14:47 UTC) → $14.5M (by 15:29 UTC). Lawson went $10.3M → $9.7M. Neither move is a verdict on form. We make no price call on either. How our formula treats a driver returning from injury or from another seat is untested, so we print no threshold for either. Re-check the feed before the lock.

What to watch

The game before Friday 12:00 UTC, for any late re-price of Hadjar or Lawson. Sainz needs 29 to stop an 11th straight fall and has not scored 29 in 14 races (best 28); 21 only limits it to −$0.2M. Verstappen needs −1 to end a 9-race slide; he has cleared that in 11 of 14 (thresholds: OUR MODEL).

Your call

Sell a faller before Friday and bank the current price, or hold where OUR MODEL puts a bounce in reach: Verstappen needs −1 (cleared in 11 of 14), but Leclerc (58) and Sainz (29) have not reached their rise lines in 2026, and Hamilton (55) has once. The floor club cannot fall; Antonelli is locked to rise, Mercedes effectively so (OUR MODEL). The rest is a points bet, and the hit rates above are the only likelihood figure we will print.

How price changes work in F1 Fantasy → Budget Builder (free, sign-in) →

2Decide

Baku grid penalties: Alonso and Stroll start from the back. Is Leclerc clear, and should you wait for Friday before you move?

Status first: the FIA has ruled. The stewards dropped Fernando Alonso 25 grid places and Lance Stroll 20 for power-unit parts beyond their season allocation. Both penalties are more than 15 places. formula1.com explains the rule: "If a driver incurs a penalty exceeding 15 grid places, they will be required to start the race at the back of the field regardless." Charles Leclerc is not on the FIA's list of new power-unit parts for Baku, so he has no power-unit penalty so far.

FIA documents · Azerbaijan GP 2026Grid-penalty watch · as of 24 Sep, 16:10 UTC

Driver	What the FIA documents say	What it means for the grid
Fernando AlonsoAston Martin	New this weekend: his 5th engine (ICE), 5th turbocharger and 9th ancillary component, where the season allows 4, 4 and 6, plus a 3rd exhaust set, within its 4 (Document 14). Stewards: drop of 25 grid positions (Document 20).	More than 15 places: back of the grid.
Lance StrollAston Martin	New this weekend: his 6th turbocharger, 7th energy store, 6th control electronics and 8th ancillary component (Document 14). Stewards: drop of 20 grid positions (Document 21).	More than 15 places: back of the grid.
Charles LeclercFerrari	Not on the list of new power-unit parts (Document 14). At the season limit on all 7 element types (Document 9).	No power-unit penalty so far. A change before qualifying would appear in a new FIA document.
Lewis HamiltonFerrari	Not on the list (Document 14). At the limit on all 7 element types (Document 9). Reprimanded by the stewards for impeding Lawson at Turn 19 in second practice, his second reprimand of the season (Document 29).	No grid penalty so far: the impeding case ended in a reprimand.
George RussellMercedes	Not on the list (Document 14). At the limit on 6 of the 7 element types (Document 9).	No power-unit penalty so far.
Six other driversLindblad, Ocon, Pérez, Piastri, Hülkenberg, Gasly	New power-unit parts this weekend, all within the season allocation (Document 14).	No penalty.

Documents 9, 14, 20 and 21 are on the FIA's Azerbaijan Grand Prix document page. The stewards also investigated Valtteri Bottas for overtaking under yellow flags in first practice and applied no penalty (Document 19).

How big a penalty is · FIA power-unit rules, 2026

Each driver may use 4 ICE / 4 TC / 4 EXH / 3 ES / 3 CE / 3 MGU-K / 6 ANC for the season. ICE is the combustion engine.
The first extra of each element type costs 10 places; each further one costs 5. Alonso's 25 is 10 (first extra engine) + 10 (first extra turbocharger) + 5 (a further ancillary). Stroll's 20 is four further extras at 5 each.
More than 15 places means starting at the back of the grid.
Replacing parts while the car is under parc fermé rules (from qualifying to the race) without the Technical Delegate's approval means a pit-lane start.
So a new engine is not automatically the back of the grid: the first extra ICE alone is 10 places.

How F1 Fantasy scores a penalised start · the official rules

Qualifying points follow the qualifying result. A grid penalty does not remove them.
Positions gained or lost count from the official FIA starting grid, not from qualifying. Official text: "Positions gained/lost are calculated based on the official FIA starting grid and race finish classifications for the driver, not their qualifying result".
Overtake points (+1 per valid pass) are paid separately from positions gained.
Final Fix: a driver brought in scores only "from the next track session (Sprint or Race) onwards". Added after qualifying, he forfeits his qualifying points. The benefit: you already know the grid.

FIA stewards' decisions and final grids · official F1 Fantasy pointsEvery grid drop of more than 15 places in rounds 1–14, as the game scored it · qualifying points kept

Round	Driver (penalty)	Qualified → started → finished	Q pts	Race pts	Weekend
R10 Belgium	Hadjar30 places	P10 → P21 → P6	1	37	38
R10 Belgium	Alonso20 places	P21 → P22 → P19	0	5	5
R13 Italy	Antonelli30 places	P7 → P19 → P1	4	89	93
R13 Italy	Albon20 places	P18 → P20 → P17	0	17	17
R13 Italy	LawsonRed Bull · 35 places, then a pit-lane start	P14 → pit lane → P14	0	25	25
R14 Spain	Stroll40 places, no Q time	— → P21 → Ret	−5	−17	−22

Six starts, 156 points in all, from −22 to 93. Weekend = Q pts + race pts in every row. Pit-lane-only starts are not included. None was at Baku.

What to watch

The FIA document page before the lock, for any late power-unit change before qualifying. The official starting grid comes out after qualifying, which is after the lock, so the stewards' penalty decisions are what you can act on. Leclerc's expected price fall is not about a penalty: he needs 37 points to hold it to −$0.1M either way (OUR MODEL).

Your call

Alonso ($6.8M) and Stroll ($3.0M) start at the back, and F1 Fantasy counts positions gained from the official starting grid. Against that, Aston Martin has taken 15 race −20s in 28 entries this season. Leclerc has no penalty so far; our published Leclerc post covered the penalty case, which has not happened yet.

The Leclerc Baku penalty play → Do grid penalties help in F1 Fantasy? →

3Decide

Baku track preview: who does this circuit reward, and is that the driver or the car?

Scope: Baku history (2016–2025) describes drivers, teams and the circuit, not the 2026 cars. New rules, 22 cars. We use no pre-2026 F1 Fantasy scores, so nothing here is "fantasy history"; it is race results, then this season's form, then our pre-weekend model, kept apart.

different winners in 9 Baku races, from grid slots as low as P10 (Ricciardo 2017)

3 of 9

poles converted to a win: Rosberg 2016, Bottas 2019, Verstappen 2025

Red Bull lineage wins at Baku, by three drivers: Ricciardo, Pérez ×2, Verstappen ×2

Ferrari wins at Baku, despite 5 poles and 5 podiums

Race results 2016–2025Selected drivers on the 2026 grid at Baku · starts, results, classification · not shown: Hülkenberg and Ocon (7 Baku starts each), Albon 5, Bearman and Colapinto 2, Hadjar and Bortoleto 1

Driver (2026 team)	Starts	Wins	Podiums	Poles	Best	Points finishes	Not classified at Baku
Max VerstappenRed Bull · At Baku, Verstappen has won 2 of the last 4 (2022, 2025); 2025 was a Grand Slam: pole, win, fastest lap and every lap led	9	2	3	1	P1	6/9	2017, 2018
Sergio PérezCadillac · the most Baku podiums; now $3.0M with 8 fantasy points this season	8	2	5	0	P1	6/8	2017
Lewis HamiltonFerrari · Hamilton at Baku: classified in all 9 starts, 1 win (2018)	9	1	2	1	P1	8/9	none
Charles LeclercFerrari · 4 straight poles 2021–2024; the Baku Leclerc record is Decision 5	7	0	2	4	P2	6/7	2022 (power unit)
George RussellMercedes · Russell at Baku: 3 podiums in his last 4 (2022 P3, 2024 P3, 2025 P2)	6	0	3	0	P2	4/6	none
Valtteri BottasCadillac	8	1	2	1	P1	3/8	none
Carlos SainzWilliams · Baku Sainz: one podium, P3	9	0	1	0	P3	6/9	2016, 2022
Fernando AlonsoAston Martin	8	0	0	0	P4	6/8	2016
Lando NorrisMcLaren · Norris at Baku has scored in all 6 starts, best P4	6	0	0	0	P4	6/6	none
Oscar PiastriMcLaren · won 2024; crashed out on lap 1 in 2025	3	1	1	0	P1	1/3	2025
Kimi AntonelliMercedes · P4 on his 2025 Baku debut	1	0	0	0	P4	1/1	none
Liam LawsonRacing Bulls	1	0	0	0	P5	1/1	none
Lance StrollAston Martin	8	0	1	0	P3	4/8	2021
Pierre GaslyAlpine	7	0	1	0	P3	2/7	2019

Race results 2016–2025By 2026 team lineage · 18 Baku starts each · bars = points finishes, scaled to 18

Team	Wins	Podiums	Poles	Points finishes	Not classified
Red Bull	5	7	1	12/18	4
Mercedes	3	8	3	15/18	0
Ferrari	0	5	5	14/18	2
McLaren	1	1	0	13/18	2
Aston MartinForce India / Racing Point lineage	0	3	0	11/18	3

Baku Red Bull: most wins. Baku Mercedes: most podiums and most points finishes, and all 18 cars classified. Baku Ferrari: most poles, no wins. History describes the teams, not the 2026 car under them.

Official F1 Fantasy2026 form · fantasy points in the last 3 rounds (R12 / R13 / R14 → total) · bars scaled to 165, zero line at the left quarter

Antonelli37 / 93 / 35

165

Norris57 / 32 / 23

112

Russell32 / 33 / 27

Piastri21 / 35 / 9

Verstappen−13 / 37 / 38

Leclerc39 / −12 / 19

Hamilton23 / 26 / −13

Stroll−10 / −10 / −22 · not classified in all three

−42

Each total is the sum of its three rounds (37+93+35, 57+32+23, 32+33+27, 21+35+9, −13+37+38, 39−12+19, 23+26−13, −10−10−22). This is the same 3-race window the price formula uses. Not shown: Lawson scored 53 (12 / 25 / 16) in the Red Bull seat, more than Leclerc and Hamilton; no other unlisted driver scored more than 33 (Colapinto 33).

OUR MODELPredicted fantasy points at Baku · our pre-weekend numbers, computed 13 Sep before practice · no penalty modelled · they update after each practice session

Drivers · CLASSIC / AI V2

Driver	CLASSIC	AI V2
Antonelli	48	45
Russell	30	27
Norris	37	24
Hamilton	20	27
Piastri	22	16
Leclerc	16	24
Verstappen	14	24

Constructors · CLASSIC / AI V2

Team	CLASSIC	AI V2
Mercedes	90	92
McLaren	69	55
Ferrari	51	66
Red Bull	41	32

Two sources, two answers on Norris (37 vs 24), Verstappen (14 vs 24), McLaren (69 vs 55) and Ferrari (51 vs 66). When our own models disagree by that much, we print both and say so.

What to watch

Thursday's practice sessions were the first look at the 2026 cars on this circuit. Russell topped both sessions: first practice from Verstappen, Leclerc and Hamilton; second practice from Antonelli, Verstappen, Leclerc and Hamilton (FIA classifications). The predictions above were computed before practice; ours re-run after every session. History says Baku rewards the Red Bull lineage in the race and Ferrari in qualifying. Form says Antonelli (165 in three rounds) and Mercedes (299, the most of any constructor), whose +$0.3M OUR MODEL rates as effectively locked.

Your call

Back the record (Red Bull 5 wins; Mercedes 15 of 18 in the points; Ferrari at Baku 0 wins from 5 poles) or back recent form (last three rounds: Antonelli 165, Norris 112, Russell 92). The 2026 car is the unknown neither table settles. Build both versions in the Team Builder and compare.

Team Builder (free, no sign-in) →

4Decide

F1 Fantasy DNF risk at Baku: how much of it can your team carry?

The official rules: "Unclassified drivers will not have any lost positions calculated, instead they will receive the -20 point penalty for the race (-10 for the Sprint)." Baku's reputation for wrecks is mostly history. The split below is the number that matters, and 2026's own attrition is the other one.

Race resultsBaku, cars not classified · rate = not classified ÷ starters · bars scaled to 25%

2016–2022122 starters · 26 not classified

21.3%

2016–2025, all 9182 starters · 30 not classified

16.5%

All races, 2016–2025214 races, every circuit · 4,293 starters · 584 not classified

13.6%

2023–202560 starters · 4 not classified (2, 1, 1)

6.7%

2026 season, R1–R14301 starters · 53 not classified · plus 7 non-starters

17.6%

122 + 60 starters = 182; 26 + 4 not classified = 30. 2026 is a high-attrition season, but it is calming down: R1–R7 averaged 4.1 unclassified cars a race (plus 7 DNS in total); R8–R14 averaged 3.4.

Baku, not classified per year · bars scaled to 7

2016

2017

2018all accidents or collisions

2019

2021Stroll (tyre failure), Ocon (power unit)

2022all mechanical, incl. Leclerc from the lead

2023

2024

2025Piastri, lap-1 crash

4+6+6+4+2+4 = 26 (2016–2022); 2+1+1 = 4 (2023–2025); 30 in all.

Neutralisations · race only · 9 Baku races · bars scaled to 9

SC or VSCand every race since 2017

8 of 9

Full Safety Car

5 of 9

Red flag2017, 2021

2 of 9

Safety Car: the field is slowed and bunched behind the safety car. VSC (virtual safety car): every driver slows to a set time, no bunching. Red flag: the race is stopped. 2021 had two Safety Cars and a red flag. Eight of nine is the number; it is not "always".

When a retirement is not a DNF · FIA classification, 90% rule

A car is classified only if it covers at least 90% of the winner's laps, rounded down. At Baku that is 45 of 51 laps. A car that retires after 45 laps is classified and does not take the −20.
2024: Pérez and Sainz crashed on lap 50 and Stroll retired with brakes (45 laps). All three were classified.
2021: Verstappen retired with 45 laps done and was classified P18.
2026: Leclerc's Barcelona retirement was classified P15, so no −20.

Official F1 Fantasy · reconciled 24/24The 2026 race −20 ledger · race −20s / race entries · bars scaled to 14 · DNF pts as the feed reports them

Driver	Race −20s / entries	Fantasy DNF pts
Lance Stroll10 × −20 plus two −5 qualifying no-times	10 / 14	−210
Valtteri Bottas	6 / 14	−130
Fernando Alonso	5 / 14	−110
Sergio Pérez	5 / 14	−100
Nico Hülkenberg	4 / 14	−110
Alex Albon	4 / 14	−80
Verstappen · Bearman · Norris · Piastri	3 / 14 each	−65 / −65 / −60 / −60
Leclerc · Russell · Sainz	2 / 14 each	−40 / −40 / −45
Isack Hadjarmissed R12–R14, injured	2 / 11	−45
Hamilton · Gasly · Ocon · Lawson	1 / 14 each	−20
Bortoleto · Lindblad	1 / 14 each	−30 / −40
Antonelli · Colapinto	0 / 14	0

Race −20s include the 7 non-starts, which the game also scores −20: Piastri 2; Hülkenberg, Norris, Albon, Bortoleto and Lindblad 1 each. DNF pts also include −10 sprint penalties (Hülkenberg 3, Lindblad 2; Bottas, Alonso, Bortoleto 1) and −5 qualifying penalties (Stroll 2; Verstappen, Sainz, Bearman, Hadjar 1). Lawson raced 11 rounds for Racing Bulls and 3 for Red Bull; his −20 was Miami. Not shown: Tsunoda, 0 in 3 (R12–R14).

By team, race −20s in 2026: Aston Martin 15 of 28 entries (Stroll 10 + Alonso 5), Cadillac 11 of 28 (Bottas 6 + Pérez 5). Fewest: Alpine 1 of 28, Mercedes and Racing Bulls 2 of 28 each.

Chip arithmetic · worth knowing, not advice

A race DNF is −20. Under a 2X boost that is −40; under x3 Boost it is −60. No Negative, in the official words, will "limit your loss at zero points for that driver or constructor", and new for 2026 it "is applied per scoring category, not just the overall total", so a DNF's −20 counts as zero while his positive categories still score. For scale: Stroll has not risen once in 2026 and took −42 across the last three rounds alone.

An honest limitation: we do not print our simulator's DNF percentages for Baku. They run far below this season's actual rate, so they would mislead. The rates above are counts from classifications, not model output.

What to watch

Whether the 2026 cars keep Baku's recent record (2, 1, 1 non-classifications in 2023–2025) or bring this season's rate (17.6%) to a street circuit. A Safety Car or VSC has come in 8 of 9 races; the 90% rule means a late retirement after lap 45 costs positions, not −20.

Your call

Carry a $3.0M floor driver and accept the ledger (Stroll 10 of 14, Bottas 6, Pérez 5), or pay for the clean records (Antonelli and Colapinto 0 of 14; Mercedes, Racing Bulls and Alpine the fewest by team). What a −20 costs you in real terms is in the linked post.

What an F1 Fantasy DNF costs →

5Decide

Did Leclerc crash from pole at Baku? The Baku Leclerc record, weekend by weekend.

Here is the precise answer. He has never crashed in a Baku race (7 Grands Prix plus the 2023 sprint). He retired from pole once, in 2022, with a power-unit failure while leading. And he has hit the barriers in practice or qualifying on three of his four pole weekends. All three statements are true at once; the record below is why.

Race results · FIA and formula1.com session reportsLeclerc at Baku, 2018–2025 · qualifying, grid → finish, wall contact that weekend

Year	Team	Qualifying	Grid → finish	Wall contact that weekend
2018	Sauber	P14	P13 → P6, his first F1 points	none found
2019	Ferrari	P9	P8 → P5, fastest lap	Q2 crash, Turn 8
2021	Ferrari	Pole	P1 → P4	FP2 crash, Turn 15
2022	Ferrari	Pole	P1 → Retired: power unit while leading	none found
2023	Ferrari	Pole (+ sprint pole)	P1 → P3 (sprint P2)	Sprint Shootout SQ3, Turn 5, after already holding GP pole; he still took sprint pole
2024	Ferrari	Pole (4th straight)	P1 → P2	FP1 crash, Turn 15 (red flag)
2025	Ferrari	P10	P10 → P9	Q3 crash, Turn 15, going for a 5th straight pole; the 5th of a record 6 red flags

straight Baku poles, 2021–2024, the most by any driver at Baku. Converted to P4, retired, P3, P2

0 wins

from 7 Baku starts · 2 podiums · 6 of 7 in the points

race non-finish, 2022: power unit while leading. Never a race crash

5+ of 7

weekends with wall contact (at least), all outside the race: 2019 Q2, 2021 FP2, 2023 SQ3, 2024 FP1, 2025 Q3

The 2022 retirement, as formula1.com told it

He had just regained the lead when Verstappen pitted. "One lap later, Leclerc's race went up in a puff of smoke." That is the one Baku Sunday Leclerc did not finish, and it was the engine, not the wall.

The wall, then, is a practice-and-qualifying story. Three of the five contacts came on weekends he then started the Grand Prix from pole (2021, 2023, 2024). Three were at Turn 15 (2021, 2024, 2025). None cost him a race classification.

Leclerc's 2026, for context · official F1 Fantasy and race results

1 win (Silverstone), 4 podiums, top-5 in qualifying in 11 of 14, no pole. Fantasy points: 331. Two race −20s: Monaco R6 (crash on a Safety Car restart) and Monza R13 (lap-2 crash at the final corner, red flag). Barcelona R7: retired but classified P15, so no −20.

What this means for the game

His Baku qualifying record: four poles in a row, the most by any driver at Baku, and qualifying points follow the qualifying result even if a grid penalty is applied. His Baku Sundays have never converted a pole into a win, and the one retirement was mechanical. The practice and qualifying crashes cost no race classification.

Your call

Read the record as a qualifying-points asset with a Sunday ceiling of P2 so far, or read 0 wins from 4 poles as the ceiling itself. He has no grid penalty so far; if that changes before qualifying, the published penalty play covers the case. Either reading is yours to make.

Your call · five decisions, the verified numbers, the options

No pick from us. The ledger, then the lock.

Decision	What the numbers say	Your options
1 · Sell or holdprice fallers and risers	Sainz needs 29 to stop his slide (0 of 14; 21 only limits it to −$0.2M). Verstappen needs −1 (11 of 14). Leclerc needs 37 to hold the fall to −$0.1M (4 of 14). Antonelli +$0.3M locked; Mercedes effectively locked. Floor club cannot fall. OUR MODEL.	Sell the fallers before Friday and bank the price.Hold for the bounce the thresholds put in reach.
2 · Grid penaltiesAlonso, Stroll, Leclerc	FIA: Alonso −25 grid places, Stroll −20, both to the back. Leclerc is not on the FIA list of new power-unit parts. Hamilton: a reprimand for impeding in second practice, no grid penalty. F1 Fantasy counts positions from the official starting grid; qualifying points are kept.	Back a back-of-grid starter for positions gained.Avoid the Aston Martins: 15 race −20s in 28 entries.
3 · Who Baku rewardshistory vs form	Red Bull lineage 5 wins in 9. Mercedes 15 of 18 in the points. Ferrari 0 wins from 5 poles. Form: Antonelli 165, Norris 112, Russell 92 in the last 3 rounds. History is not the 2026 car.	Back the record.Back recent form.
4 · DNF riskhow much to carry	Baku 2023–2025: 6.7% not classified. 2026 season: 17.6%. Stroll 10 of 14 race −20s; Antonelli and Colapinto 0 of 14. SC or VSC in 8 of 9 Baku races. 45 of 51 laps = classified.	Carry a $3.0M floor driver and accept the ledger.Pay for the clean records.
5 · Leclerc at Bakuthe record	4 straight poles, 0 wins, 2 podiums, 6 of 7 in the points. No crash in any Baku race; one retirement from pole (power unit, 2022). Wall contact in at least 5 of 7 weekends, all outside the race.	Read it as a qualifying-points asset.Read 0 wins from 4 poles as the ceiling.

Lock: Fri 25 Sep, 12:00 UTC (qualifying start). Prices and news as of 24 Sep 2026, 16:10 UTC. Check the FIA document page and the game before the lock for anything later.

Team Builder → Budget Builder → Leclerc Baku penalty play →

racestrategist.com · Azerbaijan GP F1 Fantasy tips · R15 Baku · 24 Sep 2026 OUR MODEL figures are RaceStrategist projections, not rules. Sources: the official F1 Fantasy feed (prices, points and DNF penalties; feed time 24 Sep 15:52:07 UTC) and the official F1 Fantasy rules; official race classifications 2016–2026; FIA documents for the 2026 Azerbaijan GP (Documents 9, 12, 14, 16, 19, 20, 21, 22, 24 and 29, and the Pirelli preview), the stewards' decisions and final starting grids of rounds 10, 13 and 14, and the 2026 F1 regulations; formula1.com. Baku history describes drivers, teams and the circuit, not the 2026 cars.